Rational Ground ● Members
Stayed home, 7 points, plus switched, 5, plus new voters, 2, equals a 14-point swing toward Democrats.
The 2026 post-mortem

Why Republicans Lost

Trump won 2024 by 1.5 points. Democrats won the House by about 13. We took the 14-point swing apart: who stayed home, who switched, which groups moved, and what every poll got right and wrong.

Who voted, who switched, who stayed home 7 + 5 + 2 = 14 → Every poll on the midterm graded against the count Two electorates what each side voted on Read the article rationalground.com

Updated Nov. 7 with the Cook Political Report's post-election briefing.

Members only · the receipts

COVID FOIA Database

What officials knew, and when, in their own words.

  • 738 findings from FOIA releases, court files, congressional reports and the government's own emails.
  • Every finding quotes the document and links to the original.
  • Rated honestly: ★★★ the document says it outright, ★★ it supports it, ★ it's context.
  • Search by topic, person, agency or document.
89 documents · 120 people · updated Nov. 8 Open the database →

After the election

Free. Updated as the late polls and voter files come in.

The economy

Jobs, prices and paychecks. Tap one to open it.

COVID

The receipts, from the government's own records.

2026 election archive

The forecast and every election chart, kept as they were.

Election night 2026 is over. The live pages (the decoder, the turnout tracker and the Ohio page) are kept as they were that night: decoder · turnout · Ohio.

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