Votes cast early are already banked. So the real question for Tuesday is simple: how big a win does the side that trails in the banked votes need among the votes still to come? And has that party ever won Election Day by that much?
Pick a state. The slider sets the Democrat's lead among early votes, the one number nobody can see directly. The marks under it show where the evidence points. Everything else follows from it.
Keep in mind that the comparison races come from 2022 and 2024, both good years for Republicans.
Each pair of bars is one state: the Democrat on top, the Republican below, as shares of all the votes expected. Solid is votes already cast. The lighter stretch is what the trailing candidate still needs on Election Day to reach 50%. The gold tick shows where an Election Day like the comparison race would leave them. States are ordered from closest to least close.
Using each state's best estimate of the early lead. Shares are of votes for the two main candidates; Nebraska's "Democrat" is Dan Osborn, an independent. Republicans need the votes shown just to tie.