Build your own Senate

1. Do the polls miss like last time?

2. National miss

Polls overstate Rep.Polls overstate Dem.

The same miss in every state, on top of 1.

3. Midterm mood

Late swing to Rep.Late swing to Dem.

A last-minute swing the polls missed. The president's party usually slips in a midterm.

4. Late money

Ads change nothing1 pt per $10M edge

Democrats' chance of
controlling the Senate

Every close Senate race

See every state's polls and past misses on What if the polls are wrong again? More from our 2026 forecast at rationalground.com